Violating the JCPOA gives North Korea one more lesson in confronting the United States, as the Americans never commit to an agreement, even if they are the founder. How, on earth, can North Korea believe the US’ talks and promises when Trump is not committed to a contract signed by the United States?
What would happen to the US if Trump withdraws the JCPOA?
US President, Donald Trump, has thrown doubt over the nuclear deal with
Iran in his first speech to the United Nations. He said the 2015 nuclear deal,
negotiated by his predecessor, was “an embarrassment”[1] and hinted that he may not
recertify the agreement when it comes up at the mid-October deadline. Repeating
such statements in the General Assembly indicates the unilateral decision of
the United States to withdraw from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
(JCPOA).
What would be the consequences for
the United States for withdrawing from the JCPOA? Will the US’ withdrawal from
such an agreement, that Trump describes as “the worst”, be in favor of the
United States?
Consequences
of quitting the JCPOA
There have
been uncertainties about the nuclear deal since Trump was elected. However,
signed between Iran and P5+1 with full involvement of the EU, the deal is
considered an international agreement. This is while the existence and survival
of the agreement is clearly depending on the demand of the United States and
Iran, more than others. This means that non-commitment of the United States to
the deal will actually invalidate it.
Trump calls
the nuclear deal the worst deal in American history. Influenced by the
Republican spectrum and its radical officials in the United States, as well as
his Friends in the Middle East (specifically Saudi Arabia and Israel), he is
testing all ways to withdraw from the JCPOA. He has already questioned the
stability of the agreement by threatening it.
This is while
the majority of the US’ allies believe that the deal is a successful nuclear
disarmament, reached not through force but diplomacy.
Trump believes
that the American officials and his predecessor, Obama, made a big mistake as
the deal has not paid much attention to Iran's military and defense capability,
especially Iran’s missile power. They have a different point of view toward the
nuclear deal; Obama preferred to stop Iran’s nuclear capabilty and he was
successful in his strategy, while Trump wants the maximum, obsessing with stopping
all aspects of Iran's military power, including nuclear and missile defense.
Which of these
ideas is realistic and which one is imaginary? It should be noted that while
Trump intends to halt Iran's nuclear program, as well as its defense and missile
power, at the same time he believes that Iran should not receive any economic
privilege, including either lifting of the sanctions or economic incentives. In
other words, he wants absolute surrounding from Iran.
In that line,
Nikki Haley, the United States' Ambassador to the United Nations, recently
visited Vienna, the headquarters of the International Atomic Energy Agency
(IAEA). Her talks with the Director General of IAEA, Yukio Amano, on Iran's
verification and adherence, requesting investigation and inspection of Iranian
military sites, could be considered as Trump’s first action to undermine the
JCPOA. Also, John Bolton, former ambassador of the United States in New York,
has recently published a detailed description of an excuse which proposes a
detailed plan entitled “How to get out of the Iran nuclear deal?”[2]
On the other
hand, the European officials strongly oppose Trump's anti-JCPOA approaches due
to their role in achieving the deal and its benefits. In addition, the High
Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs, Federica Mogherini,
the officials of France, Germany, the Netherlands and many other countries in
the Green Continent, emphasize on continuing the implementation and commitment
of the JCPOA by all parties. In other words, the Europeans believe that there
is no alternative for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action and it must be
preserved. In this regard, Mogherini stressed that the Iran nuclear deal is a
success and the whole world is safer for it. She said that the nuclear deal
with Iran is not an agreement between Iran and the United States, which the
United States could cancel unilaterally, but “a deal between Iran and other
negotiating parties”. She recently said that Europe will continue committing to
the JCPOA, either with the United States or without the United States.[3]
Having
mentioned such clear statement by the US friends, the US unilateral withdrawal
would be a harm for the reputation of the United States, rather than harming
Iran.
Damage to the
US Reputation
Given the fact
that the IAEA has so far confirmed Iran's commitment to the agreement, eight
times, it will be difficult for Trump’s government to withdraw from the
agreement on the pretext that Iran is not committed to the spirit of the JCPOA.
Trump will also fail in making the other countries join him in taking the same
action.
More crucially, on other hand, the US
government will face serious global criticism, particularly once such an
approach reminds the world of the US pretext on launching war on Iraq, based on
false evidence of the existence of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq back in
2003. Therefore, considering the current circumstances and the eight reports of
the Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s commitment, as well as Trump’s failure so
far to persuade the agency, the American excuse would not be heard
internationally.
On the other hand, the fact is that the more
the US insists on violating the nuclear deal, the more rigorous North Korea
will be to justify its nuclear capability. It should be noted that when Libya
was attacked by the West, pointing to the wrong decision of Gaddafi to abandon
his nuclear program, Pyongyang declared that North Korea's legitimacy to
advance its nuclear capability was proven once again.
Violating the JCPOA gives North Korea one more lesson in confronting the
United States, as the Americans never commit to an agreement, even if they are
the founder. How, on earth, can North Korea believe the US’ talks and promises
when Trump is not committed to a contract signed by the United States?
http://gidss.com/content/what-would-happen-us-if-trump-withdraws-jcpoa
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